The World Gold Council (WGC) expects gold prices to remain broadly rangebound during the second half of 2026, while highlighting that geopolitical developments, central bank buying, investor sentiment and policy measures in India will continue to influence market direction. The assessment forms part of its Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026 report.

According to the report, gold rose to record highs above $ 5,500/oz in January before retreating to around $ 4,000/oz in late June. Although prices are down about 7% year-to-date, the metal remains among the best-performing assets over the past 12 months. The WGC attributes the price movement primarily to geopolitical uncertainty, changing investor sentiment and increased participation from Asian markets in gold price discovery.

The report states that under current macroeconomic conditions, including moderate global growth, elevated but easing inflation and expectations of limited monetary tightening, gold is likely to trade within approximately ±5% of current levels around $ 4,100/oz during the remainder of the year. However, renewed geopolitical tensions, economic deterioration or lower interest-rate expectations could lift prices towards $ 4,500/oz, while stronger economic growth, higher yields and improved market confidence could push prices 10%-15% lower before bargain buying emerges.

Central bank demand continues to provide structural support for the market. The WGC noted that central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually since 2022 and are expected to remain net buyers despite tactical sales in the first quarter. Its analysis suggests that an additional 20-25 tonnes of purchases above the long-term average could increase gold prices by around 1%.

The report also identifies India as a key variable for the global gold market. It notes that the government's increase in gold import duty from 6% to 15% is expected to reduce jewellery, bar and coin demand by 50-60 tonnes, equivalent to around 10% year-on-year. While the impact is considered largely reflected in current prices, further economic slowdown or weaker consumer demand could influence India's gold consumption during the second half of 2026.